Humanoid Robot Output Ramps Up, Precision Gear Orders Booked into 2027
Summary: China produced about 360,000 industrial robots in the first half of 2026, and roughly 21,000 humanoid robots shipped. A single humanoid unit uses more than 30 reducers, and capacity expansion at harmonic and RV reducer makers is lifting demand for DIN 3–5 ground gears. Major harmonic makers saw H1 shipments rise about 35% year on year. Geyon Transmission (www.geyontech.com) supplies precision gears to DIN/ISO grades with full inspection reports.
Market: Robot Output and Gear Demand Move Together
Industrial robot output at about 360,000 units in H1 2026
NBS data puts China’s industrial robot output at about 360,000 units in H1 2026, up roughly 8% year on year, following about 670,000 units for all of 2025. The growth is concentrated in 3C electronics, new energy and automotive parts lines, where reducer and gearbox purchasing has risen accordingly.
More than 30 reducers per humanoid robot
Industry estimates put the joint count on a typical humanoid robot above 40, with reducer usage exceeding 30 units per machine — about 10–14 harmonic drives and 10–12 planetary reducers, plus planetary roller screws and direct-drive modules. At an estimated 50,000 humanoid units shipped in 2026, harmonic reducer demand lands at roughly 600,000–700,000 units, more than double the 2025 level.
Geyon Transmission machines harmonic flexsplines and circular splines, planetary gears, ring gears and sun gears for robot reducers to DIN 3 grinding precision — see the gear products page.
Harmonic and RV reducer orders pick up
Major harmonic reducer makers grew H1 2026 shipments about 35% year on year, with orders booked into Q1 2027. GGII data shows RV reducer localization at about 40%, up roughly 8 points from 2024. Falling reducer prices are pulling whole-machine costs down, which supports further purchasing downstream.
Technology: Joint Gears Move to Higher Grades
DIN 5 and above is now the norm on drawings
Flexsplines, circular splines, planetary gears and sun gears for robot reducers are commonly specified at DIN 5 or better; some prototypes are held to DIN 3–4. Under DIN 3962, grade-5 profile tolerance is read from tables for module 1–10, and lead tolerance fHβ typically runs 6–16 μm. Grinding — both worm-wheel and form — is now the routine finishing process for joint gears.
Grinding plus paired inspection
After carburizing and quenching, gears are ground to Ra 0.4 μm or better; some customers require Ra 0.2 μm. Before shipment, a gear measuring center checks profile, lead, pitch accumulation and runout. Mating pairs are then re-checked on a meshing tester, and the reports ship with the parts.
Materials and heat treatment
20CrMnTi and 20CrMo are the common choices. Carburized flanks reach 58–62 HRC with 0.6–1.2 mm effective case depth. Thin-wall parts such as flexsplines need deformation control after heat treatment, with 0.3–0.6 mm grinding allowance depending on module and wall thickness.
Supply Chain: Reducer Expansion Pulls Upstream Gear Capacity
Reducer makers scale up
Expansion projects at Leaderdrive, Shuanghuan Driveline and Zhongda Leader came online through 2026. The average harmonic reducer price has fallen from above RMB 2,000 in 2023 to about RMB 1,200 today, and gear outsourcing demand is rising with it.
Gear machine and inspection equipment orders grow
Industry surveys show domestic grinding machine and gear measuring center orders up about 30% in H1 2026, while imported grinder lead times stretch beyond 12 months. Gear shops with DIN 3 grinding capability and complete inspection lines hold a stronger hand in outsourcing negotiations.
Policy and Standards
Humanoid robot policies keep coming
In November 2023, MIIT and three other ministries issued the Guiding Opinions on Innovation and Development of Humanoid Robots, targeting batch production by 2025 and scaled development by 2027. Based on public information, robot industry funds in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen together exceed RMB 100 billion since 2026, with investment focused on reducers, servos and sensors.
The “Robot+” action continues
The “Robot+” application action plan, issued by MIIT and 16 other agencies, set a goal of doubling manufacturing robot density by 2025 against 2020 levels. IFR data shows China reached 470 robots per 10,000 workers in 2023, third worldwide, and the application base keeps widening.
Events
World Robot Conference opens in Beijing in late August
The 2026 World Robot Conference opens in Beijing in late August, with harmonic and RV reducer makers and precision gear suppliers exhibiting; several firms plan to launch new joint modules. Flexspline tooth design and grinding processes are topics worth following in the technical sessions.
Related Recommendations from Geyon Transmission
For robot reducer and high-end equipment OEM gear needs, Geyon Transmission offers:
- Precision ground gears: DIN 3–5, module M0.5–M20 (details)
- Robot reducer core parts: harmonic flexspline/circular spline, planetary gear/ring gear/sun gear
- Gear design and strength verification with KISSsoft, process simulation and option comparison
- Full inspection: gear measuring center plus meshing tester for paired gears, reports included
Technical documents and selection support: Geyon Transmission, or reach the engineering team via the contact page.
Date: August 14, 2026 | Sources: NBS, GGII, IFR, MIIT public documents, industry surveys